The Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) has said that global cereal utilization for the 2024/25 marketing year is forecast at 2,867 million tonnes, a 1 percent increase from the previous year, driven by an expected record rice consumption.
The FAO also said that wheat utilization is anticipated to remain stable, as a slight decrease in food consumption is balanced by an increase in industrial use, particularly in China.
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FAO also predicts a 1.9-percent decline in global cereal stocks, with ending stocks for 2025 forecast at 869.3 million tonnes, with higher stocks in the Russian Federation and Ukraine expected to be offset by reductions elsewhere.
“The global stocks-to-use ratio is expected to fall to 29.9 percent, still indicating a comfortable supply,” it said in a report released last Friday March 7.
Additionally, FAO has revised its forecast for global cereal trade to 484.2 million tonnes, down 5.6 percent from the previous season due to changing export dynamics, the report stated.
2025 Crop outlook varies across regions
The report said that looking ahead to 2025, in Africa, prolonged dry weather conditions in North Africa are dampening cereal production prospects, while favourable rainfall in Southern Africa is expected to support a rebound in crop yields following significant declines in 2024.
Regarding its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, the FAO forecasts global wheat production in 2025 at 796 million tonnes, marking a modest increase of nearly 1 percent from the previous year.
This forecast is underpinned by anticipated production gains in the European Union, particularly in France and Germany, where soft wheat sowings are expected to increase. However, challenges such as dry conditions in Eastern Europe and excessive rainfall in Western regions could affect yield improvements.
In the United States of America, wheat acreage is expected to expand, although yields may decline slightly due to drought conditions impacting winter crops.
Rice production is forecast to hit a record high of 543 million tonnes (in milled equivalent) in 2024/25, driven by positive crop prospects in India and favourable growing conditions in Cambodia and Myanmar.
FAO has raised its estimate for global cereal production in 2024 to 2 842 million tonnes, a slight uptick from the 2023 level.
