As we get these first results, it’s important to remember that it’s still too early to tell which way this presidential race is leaning.
When votes were being counted in the 2020 election, Donald Trump appeared to be leading in some key states on election night, but those numbers was later overtaken by votes for Joe Biden as mail-in ballots, heavily favoured by Democrats at the time, were counted.
Right now, in North Carolina and Georgia, Trump leads in the current vote count. But this could be another so-called “red mirage” – and results may later shift in Kamala Harris’s favour as more ballots are counted. We’ll have to wait for a more complete count before we know the true trend in those states.
Additionally, on the national level, due to the different time zones stretched across the US, some states with smaller electoral college votes (like Kentucky, for example, with eight) will report their results earlier than states with a larger number of votes (like California, with 54), which could reshape the current overall results.
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There’s also the battleground states. Both Trump and Harris need to win at least three in order to secure the White House. Whichever way these swing states vote could heavily tilt the election.
Path to 270: How do the candidates win?
There are 50 states in the US and most of them vote for the same political party at every election. But there are a handful of states – known as swing states – where either candidate could win.
These states are Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
States with more people are worth more, translating to the number of electoral college votes each carries.
There are 538 electoral college votes up for grabs in total. The next president will be the candidate that gets 270 or more. Both candidates will need to win at least three swing states to get them over the line.
